EMS 2017: Probabilistic forecast of major arable crops

Probabilistic forecast of major arable crops in Serbia and Austria

Probabilistic forecast of crop production is based on the ensemble of crop model output estimates (CMO) which can be created either by using a larger number of crop models (by tuning of the crop parameters in one crop model) or by using created ensemble weather forecast data as input for crop model. In this study data from two locations, one in Serbia and one in Austria were used for the run of crop model with meteorological ensemble data as input files. Meteorological data in the form of seasonal forecasts was collected yearly during 2006-2014 period and were assimilated from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and the Meteorological Archival and Retrieval System (MARS).

Topic was presented on EMS 2017 in Dublin, Ireland.

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Probabilistic forecast of major arable crops in Serbia and Austria