Testing efficacy of monthly forecast application in agrometeorology: Winter wheat phenology dynamic
Published by: IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
Abstract:
Use of monthly weather forecast as input meteorological data for agrometeorological forecasting, crop modelling and plant protection can foster promising applications in agricultural production. Operational use of monthly or seasonal weather forecast can help farmers to optimize field operations (fertilizing, irrigation) and protection measures against plant diseases and pests by taking full advantage of monthly forecast information in predicting plant development, pest and disease risks and yield potentials few weeks in advance. It can help producers to obtain stable or higher yield with the same inputs and to minimise losses caused by weather. In Central and South-Eastern Europe ongoing climate change lead to shifts of crops phenology dynamics (i.e. in Serbia 4-8 weeks earlier in 2016 than in previous years) and brings this subject in the front of agronomy science and practice. Objective of this study is to test efficacy of monthly forecast in predicting phenology dynamics of different winter wheat varieties, using phenological model developed by Forecasting and Warning Service of Serbia in plant protection. For that purpose, historical monthly forecast for four months (March 1, 2005 – June 30, 2005) was assimilated from ECMWF MARS archive for 50 ensemble members and control run. Impact of different agroecological conditions is tested by using observed and forecasted data for two locations – Rimski Sancevi (Serbia) and Groß-Enzersdorf (Austria).
Key words: Phenology, Agrometeorology, Numerical weather prediction, Monthly weather forecast, Ensemble spread, Winter wheat
Featured image is from https://www.ecmwf.int/ website and it represents displays of the weekly mean precipitation anomalies relative to the past 20 year climate.
Naslov: Еfikasnost primene mesečne prognoze vremena u agrometeorologiji: Dinamika vegetacije ozime pšenice
Rezime:
Korišćenje mesečne prognoze vremena u funkciji ulaznih meteoroloških podataka u agrometeorološkim prognozama, modeliranju biljne proizvodnje (prognozi prinosa i dinamike vegetacije) i zaštiti bilja može podstaći primenu ove prognoze vremena u poljoprivredi. Operativna primena mesečne ili sezonske prognoze vremena može pomoći proizvođačima u optimalnoj primeni đubriva i navodnjavanju kao i primeni zaštitnih sredstava, korišćenjem prognozirane dinamike vegetacije biljke domaćina i prognoziranog prinosa nekoliko sedmica ili meseci unapred. Ovakve prognoze mogu pomoći proizvođačima u ostvarivanju stabilnih ili viših prinosa sa istim “inputima”, kao i u smanjenju šteta izazvanih nepovoljnim vremenskim prilikama. U Centralnoj i Jugoistočnoj Evropi efekti klimatskih promena dovode do značajnih pomeranja u odnosu na prosečne datume nastupanja fenoloških faza pojedinih ratarskih kultura (npr. u 2016. Je početak vegetacije ozime pšenice u nekim regionima bio 4-8 sedmica ranije) što ovaj problem stavlja u fokus agronomske nauke i prakse. Cilj ove studije je bio da testira efikasnost mesecne prognoze vremena u predviđanju dinamike vegetacije različitih sorti (ili hibrida?) ozime pšenice korišćenjem fenološkog modela koji je razvijen od strane stručnjaka Prognozno-izveštajne službe u zaštiti bilja Srbije.